What's Apple's Next Move?
Apple is approaching the end of its lifecycle again. The last time this tech giant was a week from filing for bankruptcy protection before conceding to their senses and re-instating Steve Jobs as the CEO. Jobs almost immediately resuscitated the company by introducing all-new devices, iTunes and iOS with an immense app ecosystem. Everything else is history as we know it.
This time around, we don't have Steve Jobs anymore. And as much as many would like to deny Jobs being anything close to a genius, his vision brought tablet PCs to the world where Microsoft couldn't, gave iPod to the world where Sony failed miserably, saved the music industry with iTunes and made mobile phones actually worth calling 'Smart' phones.
His departure was a great loss, not only to his die-hard fans, but also the entire tech industry. Without him aggressively paving way for unconventional technology we wouldn't be where we are today. And this holds true also for Apple Inc. Let's face it, the time for Apple's glory is over. However much Tim Cook tries, he will always be the one who prolonged the inevitable decline of Apple. Jobs, like a Civ 5 Great Person, don't come by very often.
So the question now is what does Apple have up their sleeves? Will they try to extend the product lifecycle of their existing line up, or will they come up with something so staggering they will sweep the world off their feet again? I doubt the latter, as much as I want it to happen.
Existing Line Ups - Hardware
Let's look at what they have right now. The iPhone is an obsolete product. Year after year their improvements get less and less amazing, to a point where they have to introduce pointless parallax wallpapers and finger print sensors. Don't get me wrong, the finger print sensor is an awesome product, and I'm very sure they will come up with some amazing ways of using it. But so was Siri. I can expect Samsung or HP or IBM or Nokia to come up with little tacky things like these, but absolutely not from Apple. I expect more. The entire world expects more.
The iPad is near dead, and I'm surprised they're still making iPods. MacBook Airs are doing well replacing discontinued entry-level MacBook Pros, and MacBook Pros are solid as ever. But the entire PC (laptops included) industry is at a historical decline since the introduction of, yup, the iPad. The iPad Mini was adequate, but in no way revolutionary.
And thanks to the new generation of subscription-based music like Spotify, Deezer and Pandora, iTunes begins to wither.
Apple TV. What can I say? Apple tried to duplicate their Earth-shattering iTunes model with TV but made a fatal mistake; they didn't fully understand that TV is and will never be music. Firstly, the consumption pattern is different. Secondly, it's an entirely different ball game altogether with stronger and more influential players.
Existing Line Ups - Services
During the sudden adoption to cloud, Apple jumped onto the bandwagon by introducing iCloud. At the time it seemed like a pretty competent service. Well at that time anything from Apple seemed amazing. But as other cloud services evolved and grew into the lives of consumers, iCloud remained irrelevant. It's not absolutely un-usable, but it can easily be replaced with other services that can move across all platforms like Dropbox, Box and Google.
Then there's Siri, what the world revelled as the most amazing personal assistant app when it was introduced. And almost instantly it faded into oblivion. Siri's Achilles Heel was its inability to communicate with anything other than iOS-native apps. And while Siri remained practically the same since launch many years ago, Google's Now took that idea to a completely new level of remarkable and immediately made Siri seem cave(wo)man.
Future in Wearable
Apple recently trademarked the name iWatch. It could very well be a decoy for every other hardware maker rushing in the wrong direction while Apple cooks up a brilliant scheme. But it seemed what they were doing was to use silly bulldozing competitors like Samsung and Sony as guinea pigs as they observe the consumers' reaction towards wearable tech. The very reason Google, too, haven't unveiled a mass-produced wearable tech is because this is a tricky avenue that requires a lot of thought. The fact too that Apple was actually taking so long to introduce an entirely new product line to the world also says a lot about its new skipper. Jobs wouldn't think 'If the world would accept it,' he would say 'The world WILL accept it, and bow at my feet'.
Rumours circulating around hints at a wearable tech geared towards health. Apple's recent employment of some key individuals also lean towards this idea. They will probably build a watch (or any other wearable tech) that hopes to become an intricate medical monitoring infrastructure.
While this seems like something very much anticipated by many in the fitness world, it's also very sad if this rumour is true. The world doesn't need another practical and careful company. Leave these petty things to Kickstarter projects and the likes of Nike and Reebok.
But let's say they are going ahead with this. For it to work Apple will need to first tear down their wall of secrecy and restrictions, and allow third-party integration, or else it will become the next Siri. This could mean an overhaul of the company structure and culture, which I think is necessary to move it forward.
Future in Automobile
Apple announced they will work with selected auto makers to come equipped with Apple entertainment systems. We know that even before this many car makers and tech companies have tried to make this work, but nothing came to fruition. It was not because other OSes were not as advanced or their hardware were not able to accommodate. It was because these two objects, car and mobile device, have different lifecycles.
A car's lifecycle is about 5 - 7 years, depending on economic situations. Some auto makers even dragged their outgoing models' lifecycle a little longer to ride out the recent global financial crisis. Mobile devices, on the other hand, don't last any longer than 2 years. Heck, technology companies don't have lifecycles more than 5 years if they are not extraordinarily good at what they do.
So a car's entertainment system will become obsolete long before the face-lift version of that model comes into the market. Then second-hand value of these entertainment systems will become irrelevant because most users will rip them off and replace them with longer-lasting entertainment systems or radios. Remember why Apple relaunched the iPad 2 along with the iPad Air? It's for retail businesses that spent millions on infrastructure that used the old 30-pin connectors. What if they suddenly introduced the Lighting-er Connector? How will they manage compatibility issues with devices using Lightning Connectors?
Apple could consider building a slower-to-evolve version of iOS to accommodate the lifecycle of these cars so their units will not lose value so quickly. But that would mean they will have to devote another team solely on repackaging the iOS to fit this product range.
Future in Fog
Apple has always been very good at surprising the world and creating demand out of the silliest innovations, which is by no means a bad thing. It is actually a very good idea to incorporate Apple's OS into cars, but that comes with long-term responsibilities because of the lifecycle of a car.
Apple, it seems, is at a crossroad. It's time for them to evolve, but into what, we don't know. They don't just need new products and services, but a new ideology and mission.
